Comment on Influence Diagram Retrospective

  • Authors:

  • Ronald A. Howard;James E. Matheson;Miley W. (Lee) Merkhofer;Allen C. Miller;D. Warner North

  • Affiliations:

  • Management Science and Engineering Department, Stanford University, Terman Engineering Center 700-420, Stanford, California 94305-4026;Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, and SmartOrg, Inc., 855 Oak Grove Avenue, Suite 202, Menlo Park, California 94025;Lee Merkhofer Consulting, 22706 Medina Court, Cupertino, California 95014;Decision Analysis Company LLC, 25020 Pine Hills Drive, Carmel, California 93923;Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, and NorthWorks, Inc., 1002 Misty Lane, Belmont, California 94002

  • Venue:
  • Decision Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

Influence diagrams were first used in 1973 as a way to model political conflicts in the Persian Gulf and measure the value of information collected by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The number of scenarios for events in the region was too large to be represented as a conventional decision tree model. Influence diagrams were initially conceived as a way to create smaller, coalesced decision trees that required fewer probability assessments. However we found that they also facilitated communication between analysts, experts, and policy makers. Influence diagrams later became the basis for new ways of solving decision models.