Prognostic Bayesian networks

Authors:
Marion Verduijn;Peter M. J. Rosseel;Niels Peek;Evert de Jonge;Bas A. J. M. de Mol
Affiliations:
Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center (AMC), P.O. Box 22700, 1100 DE Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology, Eindhoven, ...;Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Amphia Hospital, Breda, The Netherlands;Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center (AMC), P.O. Box 22700, 1100 DE Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Department of Intensive Care Medicine, AMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, AMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Venue:
Journal of Biomedical Informatics
Year:
2007

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Abstract

A prognostic Bayesian network (PBN) is new type of prognostic model that implements a dynamic, process-oriented view on prognosis. In a companion article, the rationale of the PBN is described, and a dedicated learning procedure is presented. This article presents an application hereof in the domain of cardiac surgery. A PBN is induced from clinical data of cardiac surgical patients using the proposed learning procedure; hospital mortality is used as outcome variable. The predictive performance of the PBN is evaluated on an independent test set, and results were compared to the performance of a network that was induced using a standard algorithm where candidate networks are selected using the minimal description length principle. The PBN is embedded in the prognostic system ProCarSur; a prototype of this system is presented. This application shows PBNs as a useful prognostic tool in medical processes. In addition, the article shows the added value of the PBN learning procedure.