A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model

  • Authors:

  • Günter Blöschl;Christian Reszler;Jürgen Komma

  • Affiliations:

  • Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040 Vienna, Austria;Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040 Vienna, Austria;Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040 Vienna, Austria

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model structure defined at the model element scale and multi-source model identification. The model represents runoff generation on a grid basis and lumped routing in the river reaches. Ensemble Kalman Filtering is used to update the model states (grid soil moisture) based on observed runoff. The forecast errors as a function of forecast lead time are evaluated for a number of major events in the 622km^2 Kamp catchment and range from 10% to 30% for 4-24h lead times, respectively.