Demand forecasting of high-speed Internet access service considering unknown time-varying covariates

Authors:
So Young Sohn;Yoonseong Kim;Ho Young Hwang
Affiliations:
Department of Information & Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, 134 Sinchon-dong, Seoul 120-749, Republic of Korea;Department of Information & Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, 134 Sinchon-dong, Seoul 120-749, Republic of Korea;ETRI, 161 Gajeong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-700, Republic of Korea
Venue:
Computers and Industrial Engineering
Year:
2008

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Abstract

In order to forecast the demand for information and communication services, it is important to consider not only intrinsic variables representing service characteristics but also unknown time-varying variables such as marketing policy. However, in many cases, information such as a company's internal marketing policy is not available. This study proposes a negative exponential growth curve model that incorporates unobservable time-varying covariates by reversely estimating the unknown covariates. The proposed approach is then applied to technological forecasting of high-speed Internet access services provided by a telecommunication corporation in Korea.