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In this paper we propose an analytical model that describes the temporal evolution of the end-to-end loss characteristics for live multicast streaming. We consider push-based architectures combined with retransmissions and forward error correction (FEC). We use the model to identify the primary sources of delay in overlay multicast, and to investigate the possible ways of decreasing the required playback delay. Based on the results we argue that in order to achieve good quality with low playback delays independent of the overlay's size, these systems have to adjust the FEC code rate dynamically. Our findings show that the available upload capacity is the key to efficient overlay multicast with low delay bounds.