The growth forecast in the number of broadband services subscribers using grey model

Authors:
Chao-Sheng Chang
Affiliations:
Graduate School of Information Management, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Venue:
CEA'07 Proceedings of the 2007 annual Conference on International Conference on Computer Engineering and Applications
Year:
2007

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Abstract

Considering the need to prepare short to mid-term plan and budget for building and maintaining costly infrastructure for the fast growing broadband services in Taiwan, this paper attempted to forecast the growth in the number of broadband subscribers in Taiwan with the help of Grey Model, GM(1,1), developed from Grey system theory. A forecast system was designed and built based on GM(1,1) followed by an experiment using the data published by DGT Taiwan. The experimental results show that a rolling GM(1,1) can satisfactorily forecast the growth in the number of broadband subscribers based on only a small sample of data. A set of four sequential records can accurately forecast the fifth record with less than 2.54% error in average and can adequately forecast the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth records with a maximum of 12.98% error.