Understanding Terror Networks
Human behavior models for agents in simulators and games: part I: enabling science with PMFserv
Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments
Human behavior models for agents in simulators and games: part II: gamebot engineering with PMFserv
Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments
Agent based human behavior modeling: a knowledge engineering based systems methodology for integrating social science frameworks for modeling agents with cognition, personality and culture
An embeddable testbed for insurgent and terrorist agent theories: InsurgiSim
Intelligent Decision Technologies
Coordination, Organizations, Institutions and Norms in Agent Systems IV
Intelligent Decision Technologies - Engineering and management of IDTs for knowledge management systems
Validating agent based social systems models
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
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Military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysts are increasingly interested in having a valid system of models that span the social sciences and interoperate so that one can determine the effects that may arise from alternative operations (courses of action) in different lands. Part I of this article concentrated on internal validity of the components of such a synthetic framework--a world diplomacy game as well as the agent architecture for modeling leaders and followers in different conflicts. But how valid are such model collections once they are integrated together and used out-of-sample (see Sect. 1)? Section 2 compares these realistic, descriptive agents to normative rational actor theory and offers equilibria insights for conflict games. Sections 3 and 4 offer two real world cases (Iraq and SE Asia) where the agent models are subjected to validity tests and an effects based operations (EBO, as in Smith, Effects based operations: applying network-centric warfare in peace, crisis, and war, 2002) experiment is then run for each case. We conclude by arguing that substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analytic experiments are to effectively explore conflicts and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such efforts are likely to improve behavioral game theory as well.