Modelling of Turkey's net energy consumption using artificial neural network

Authors:
Adnan Sozen;Erol Arcaklioglu;Mehmet Ozkaymak
Affiliations:
Technical Education Faculty, Mechanical Education Department, Gazi University, Teknikokullar, Ankara 06503, Turkey.;Engineering Faculty, Mechanical Engineering Department, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale 71450, Turkey.;Technical Education Faculty, Mechanical Education Department, Karaelmas University, Karabuk, Turkey
Venue:
International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology
Year:
2005

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Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop the equations forforecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using artificial neuralnetwork (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level ofthe energy consumption in Turkey. Two different models were used inorder to train the neural network: population, gross generation,installed capacity and years are used in input layer of network(Model 1); energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model2). The NEC is in output layer for two models. R2 valuesfor training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913, for Model 1 andModel 2, respectively. Similarly, R2 values for testingdata are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Model 1 and Model 2,respectively. According to the results, the NEC prediction usingANN technique will be helpful in developing highly applicable andproductive planning for energy policies.