A theory of rolling horizon decision making
Annals of Operations Research
Inventory control in a fluctuating demand environment
Operations Research
Peeling layers of an onion: inventory model with multiple delivery modes and forecast updates
Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Coordination and Flexibility in Supply Contracts with Options
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Chain Performance
Management Science
The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain
Management Science
Inventory Models with Fixed Costs, Forecast Updates, and Two Delivery Modes
Operations Research
A Time-Series Framework for Supply-Chain Inventory Management
Operations Research
Coordination of the supply chain of seasonal products
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans
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Updating of forecasts is essential for successful collaborative forecasting, especially for seasonal products. This paper discusses the results of a theoretical simulation and an empirical test of a proposed time-series forecast updating procedure. It involves a two-stage longitudinal case study of a toy supply chain. The theoretical simulation involves historical weekly consumer demand data for 122 toy products. The empirical test is then carried out in real-time with 291 toy products. The results show that the proposed forecast updating procedure: 1) reduced forecast errors of the annual consumer demand, 2) determined timing for the commitment to subsequent replenishment during the selling seasons within acceptable forecast uncertainty, and 3) facilitated collaborative forecasting with more accurate forecast updates. However, during the empirical test, the forecast updating procedure provided less forecast accuracy improvement and it needed a longer time to achieve relatively acceptable forecast uncertainty.