A note on an experimental study of DSS and forecasting exponential growth

  • Authors:

  • David Arnott;Peter O'Donnell

  • Affiliations:

  • Centre for Decision Support and Enterprise Systems Research, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia;Centre for Decision Support and Enterprise Systems Research, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

  • Venue:
  • Decision Support Systems
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

Many managers need to make forecasts of variables that are growing rapidly. Business variables that increase or decrease exponentially are common in turbulent and complex markets, and misjudging the exponential nature of these variables in an important decision could have major adverse consequences for an organization. This paper reports on an experiment that investigated the use of DSS in an exponential decision task. It found that the use of a simple DSS significantly improved decision performance. This study forms the start of a series of investigations into DSS and complexity.