NHPP models with Markov switching for software reliability

  • Authors:
  • Nalini Ravishanker;Zhaohui Liu;Bonnie K. Ray

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs CT 06269, United States;Novartis Pharmaceutical Corporation, East Hanover, NJ 07936, United States;Mathematical Sciences Department, IBM Watson Research Center, P.O. Box 218, Yorktown Heights, NY 10598, United States

  • Venue:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

We describe the use of a latent Markov process governing the parameters of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model for characterizing the software development defect discovery process. Use of a Markov switching process allows us to characterize non-smooth variations in the rate at which defects are found, better reflecting the industrial software development environment in practice. Additionally, we propose a multivariate model for characterizing changes in the distribution of defect types that are found over time, conditional on the total number of defects. A latent Markov chain governs the evolution of probabilities of the different types. Bayesian methods via Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitate inference. We illustrate the efficacy of the methods using simulated data, then apply them to model reliability growth in a large operating system software component-based on defects discovered during the system testing phase of development.