A statistical approach for prediction of projects based on simulation

  • Authors:

  • Mariane Moreira de Souza;Humberto C. B. de Oliveira;Alexandre M. L. de Vasconcelos;Sandro R. Bezerra Oliveira

  • Affiliations:

  • Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil;Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil;Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil;University of Amazônia, Belém, Brazil

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 2008 ACM symposium on Applied computing
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

The definition of imprecise estimates is one of the crucial problems of software industry. In this context, this work presents an approach for prediction of stated periods of projects based on simulation, using statistical methods. The simulation is used to provide more confidence to the estimates defined by the project manager, so that they can reflect the organization's reality. Based on the estimates provided by the simulator, statistical methods are used to predict an interval, to which the end of the project, in practice, will have chances to belong to. A case study was performed in the end of the research attesting, statistically, the potential of the approach defined in this work.