Economic impact evaluation of short-term load forecast errors using a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm

Authors:
Jiang Chuanwen;Li Shuai;Wang Chengmin
Affiliations:
Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, PR China;Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, PR China;Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, PR China
Venue:
ISTASC'05 Proceedings of the 5th WSEAS/IASME International Conference on Systems Theory and Scientific Computation
Year:
2005

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Computational Intelligence Techniques for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems

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Abstract

Under the circumstances of Power Market, load forecast errors directly lead to the increase of costs of dispatch and maintenance. With a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm (MSCOA), and the next-day units bidding model as the valuation model for economy of load forecast errors, this paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of load forecast errors on the marginal prices and purchase costs of the grid. Computations give results with practical meanings: losses caused by negative load errors are larger than those caused by positive ones. The algorithm put forward is of fine convergence.