A neuro fuzzy fechnique for modelling climatic variations in the Plio-Pleistocene

Authors:
F. O. Souza;R. A. Miranda;E. M. A. M. Mendes;R. M. Palhares
Affiliations:
Department of Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil;Department of Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil;Department of Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil;Department of Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Venue:
AMCOS'05 Proceedings of the 4th WSEAS International Conference on Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Year:
2005

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Abstract

In this paper a new approach to model climatic variations in the Plio-Pleistocene is presented. In a recent reference, Rial in [1] introduced the working hypothesis that frequency modulation (FM) of the orbital eccentricity forcing may be an important source of the nonlinearities observed in the δ18O time series from deep-sea sediment cores. Two models are proposed based on the ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) structure. The first model uses only past values of the time series under investigation. The second model uses information on the orbital eccentricity forcing and an artificially generated FM which is an extension of the FM signal proposed by Rial. The two models are compared in the light of long term predictions.