On the bursty evolution of blogspace
WWW '03 Proceedings of the 12th international conference on World Wide Web
The predictive power of online chatter
Proceedings of the eleventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery in data mining
Enhancing clustering blog documents by utilizing author/reader comments
ACM-SE 45 Proceedings of the 45th annual southeast regional conference
Identifying opinion leaders in the blogosphere
Proceedings of the sixteenth ACM conference on Conference on information and knowledge management
Contextual Prediction of Communication Flow in Social Networks
WI '07 Proceedings of the IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence
Semantic Modelling of User Interests Based on Cross-Folksonomy Analysis
ISWC '08 Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on The Semantic Web
Proceedings of the 18th international conference on World wide web
Supporting analysis of future-related information in news archives and the web
Proceedings of the 9th ACM/IEEE-CS joint conference on Digital libraries
Predicting the volume of comments on online news stories
Proceedings of the 18th ACM conference on Information and knowledge management
Proceedings of the 2nd ACM workshop on Social web search and mining
Making sense of meaning: leveraging social processes to understand media semantics
ICME'09 Proceedings of the 2009 IEEE international conference on Multimedia and Expo
Annotated probabilistic temporal logic
ACM Transactions on Computational Logic (TOCL)
Extraction, characterization and utility of prototypical communication groups in the blogosphere
ACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS)
Frequent pattern trend analysis in social networks
ADMA'10 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Advanced data mining and applications: Part I
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Towards detecting influenza epidemics by analyzing Twitter messages
Proceedings of the First Workshop on Social Media Analytics
ChronoSeeker: search engine for future and past events
Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Uniquitous Information Management and Communication
Correlating financial time series with micro-blogging activity
Proceedings of the fifth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Proceedings of the 15th International Academic MindTrek Conference: Envisioning Future Media Environments
Proceedings of the 2012 international workshop on Socially-aware multimedia
Predicting Stock Market Using Online Communities Raw Web Traffic
WI-IAT '12 Proceedings of the The 2012 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Joint Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology - Volume 01
Hi-index | 0.00 |
In this paper, we develop a simple model to study and analyze communication dynamics in the blogosphere and use these dynamics to determine interesting correlations with stock market movement. This work can drive targeted advertising on the web as well as facilitate understanding community evolution in the blogosphere. We describe the communication dynamics by several simple contextual properties of communication, e.g. the number of posts, the number of comments, the length and response time of comments, strength of comments and the different information roles that can be acquired by people (early responders / late trailers, loyals / outliers). We study a "technology-savvy" community called Engadget (http://www.engadget.com). There are two key contributions in this paper: (a) we identify information roles and the contextual properties for four technology companies, and (b) we model them as a regression problem in a Support Vector Machine framework and train the model with stock movements of the companies. It is interestingly observed that the communication activity on the blogosphere has considerable correlations with stock market movement. These correlation measures are further cross-validated against two baseline methods. Our results are promising yielding about 78% accuracy in predicting the magnitude of movement and 87% for the direction of movement.