Spatial correlations in SIR epidemic models

Authors:
Henryk Fuks;Ryan Duchesne;Anna T. Lawniczak
Affiliations:
Department of Mathematics, Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada;Department of Mathematics, Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada;Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
Venue:
MATH'05 Proceedings of the 7th WSEAS International Conference on Applied Mathematics
Year:
2005

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Abstract

We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial correlations, in an attempt to produce correlation curves similar to those reported recently for real epidemiological data. We find that introduction of a long-range interaction destroys spatial correlations very easily if neighbourhood sizes are homogeneous. For inhomogeneous neighbourhoods, very strong long-range coupling is required to achieve a similar effect.