Probabilistic Approaches For Credit Screening And Bankruptcy Prediction
International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting and Finance Management
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Poor credit granting decisions are coming back to haunt providers of loan finance. Past poor credit granting decisions are in part due to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (1975). This act requires lenders to explain the decision to grant or refuse credit. As a result, models such as artificial neural networks, which offer improved ability to identify poor credit risks but which do not offer easy explanations of why a loan applicant has scored badly, remain unused. This paper investigates whether these models can be interpreted so that explanations for credit application rejection can be provided. The results indicate that while the artificial neural networks can be used (with caution) to develop credit scoring models, the limitations imposed by the credit granting process make their use unlikely until interpretation techniques are developed that are more robust and that can interpret multiple hidden-layer artificial neural networks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.