A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

  • Authors:
  • Neli R. S. Ortega;Eduardo Massad;Cláudio José Struchiner

  • Affiliations:
  • School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM 01/HCFMUSP, Rua Teodoro Sampaio 115, São Paulo, CEP 05405-000, SP, Brazil;School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo and LIM 01/HCFMUSP, Rua Teodoro Sampaio 115, São Paulo, CEP 05405-000, SP, Brazil and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Lond ...;Program of Scientific Computation, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  • Venue:
  • Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother's seroprevalence and children's seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ''high'' or ''low''. The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive.