Technology diffusion: analysing the diffusion of agent technologies

Authors:
Jez Mckean;Hayden Shorter;Michael Luck;Peter Mcburney;Steven Willmott
Affiliations:
Jazzle, Wavertee, Liverpool, UK L15 1ET;Aepona Ltd, Belfast, UK BT15 1AQ;Department of Computer Science, King's College London, Strand, London, UK WC2R 2LS;Department of Computer Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK L69 7ZF;Dept Llenguatges i Sistemes Informatics, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 08034
Venue:
Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems
Year:
2008

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Abstract

Despite several examples of deployed agent systems, there remain barriers to the large-scale adoption of agent technologies. In order to understand these barriers, this paper considers aspects of marketing theory which deal with diffusion of innovations and their relevance to the agents domain and the current state of diffusion of agent technologies. In particular, the paper examines the role of standards in the adoption of new technologies, describes the agent standards landscape, and compares the development and diffusion of agent technologies with that of object-oriented programming. The paper also reports on a simulation model developed in order to consider different trajectories for the adoption of agent technologies, with trajectories based on various assumptions regarding industry structure and the existence of competing technology standards. We present details of the simulation model and its assumptions, along with the results of the simulation exercises.