Oil Price Forecasting with an EMD-Based Multiscale Neural Network Learning Paradigm

  • Authors:
  • Lean Yu;Kin Keung Lai;Shouyang Wang;Kaijian He

  • Affiliations:
  • Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China and Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Ta ...;Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong;Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China;Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong

  • Venue:
  • ICCS '07 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Computational Science, Part III: ICCS 2007
  • Year:
  • 2007

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

In this study, a multiscale neural network learning paradigm based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is proposed for crude oil price prediction. In this learning paradigm, the original price series are first decomposed into various independent intrinsic mode components (IMCs) with a range of frequency scales. Then the internal correlation structures of different IMCs are explored by neural network model. With the neural network weights, some important IMCs are selected as final neural network inputs and some unimportant IMCs that are of little use in the mapping of input to output are discarded. Finally, the selected IMCs are input into another neural network model for prediction purpose. For verification, the proposed multiscale neural network learning paradigm is applied to a typical crude oil price -- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price prediction.