A Novel Situation Awareness Model for Network Systems' Security

Authors:
Guosheng Zhao;Huiqiang Wang;Jian Wang;Linshan Shen
Affiliations:
Institute of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Engineer, University, Harbin 150001, China and Center of Computer Network and Information, Harbin Normal, University, Harbin 150001, China;Institute of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Engineer, University, Harbin 150001, China;Institute of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Engineer, University, Harbin 150001, China;Institute of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Engineer, University, Harbin 150001, China
Venue:
ICCS '07 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Computational Science, Part III: ICCS 2007
Year:
2007

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Abstract

Building and maintaining the information superiority is the basis of the principle of active defense, integrated guarding in the cyberspace. In this paper, a novel method based on grey verhulst model was introduced to forecast the network system's security situation. Starting with unequal interval original risk data series, the proposed method choosed grey verhulst model or its inverse function to forecast the future risk value of network system, ant then it could modify the forecasting precision based on multilevel residual error. Simulation results reveal that the presented model not only gains the intuitionistic curve graph of network security situation, but also can achieve satisfactory precision. At the same time, it is simple in use and deserves further study to fully explore its potential for evaluation issues.