Bayes' Rule, Principle of Indifference, and Safe Distribution

  • Authors:

  • Andrzej Piegat;Marek Landowski

  • Affiliations:

  • Faculty of Computer Science and Information Systems, Szczecin University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland 71-210;Faculty of Computer Science and Information Systems, Szczecin University of Technology, Szczecin, Poland 71-210 and Quantitative Methods Institute, Szczecin Maritime University, Szczecin, Poland 7 ...

  • Venue:
  • ICAISC '08 Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

Bayes' rule is the basis of probabilistic reasoning. It enables to surmount information gaps. However, it requires the knowledge of prior distributions of probabilistic variables. If this distribution is not known then, according to the principle of indifference, the uniform distribution has to be assumed. The uniform distribution is frequently and heavily criticized. The paper presents a safe distribution of probability density that can be often used instead of the uniform distribution to surmount information gaps. According to the authors' knowledge the concept of the safe distribution is new and unknown in the literature.