Contact Network Modeling of Flu Epidemics

  • Authors:

  • Ian X. Leung;Gareth Gibbs;Franco Bagnoli;Anil Sorathiya;Pietro Liò/

  • Affiliations:

  • The Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K. CB3 0FD;The Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K. CB3 0FD;Department of Energy, University of Florence, Via S. Marta 3, 50139 Firenze, Italy/ also CSDC and INFN, sez. Firenze,;The Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K. CB3 0FD;The Computer Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K. CB3 0FD

  • Venue:
  • ACRI '08 Proceedings of the 8th international conference on Cellular Automata for Reseach and Industry
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

Using actual census, family and age structure, land-use and population-mobility data, we develop a stochastic cellular automata on a social contact network to study the propagation of influenza epidemics in the UK. In particular, we address age dependency and obtain the contact networks through the analysis of location co-presence. We analyze infection propensities as well as vaccination techniques. The results indicate the relative merits of different vaccination strategies combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.