Modelling spatio-temporal movement of tourists using finite Markov chains

Authors:
Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia;Panlop Zeephongsekul;Colin Arrowsmith
Affiliations:
Department of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University of Technology, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA, Australia;School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia;School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia
Venue:
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
Year:
2009

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Abstract

This paper presents a novel method for modelling the spatio-temporal movements of tourists at the macro-level using Markov chains methodology. Markov chains are used extensively in modelling random phenomena which results in a sequence of events linked together under the assumption of first-order dependence. In this paper, we utilise Markov chains to analyse the outcome and trend of events associated with spatio-temporal movement patterns. A case study was conducted on Phillip Island, which is situated in the state of Victoria, Australia, to test whether a stationary discrete absorbing Markov chain could be effectively used to model the spatio-temporal movements of tourists. The results obtained showed that this methodology can indeed be effectively used to provide information on tourist movement patterns. One significant outcome of this research is that it will assist park managers in developing better packages for tourists, and will also assist in tracking tourists' movements using simulation based on the model used.