Undecimated Wavelet Based Autoregressive Model for Anchovy Catches Forecasting

  • Authors:
  • Nibaldo Rodriguez;Carlos Castro;Orlando Duran;Eleuterio Yañez

  • Affiliations:
  • Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile;Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile;Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile;Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile

  • Venue:
  • MICAI '08 Proceedings of the 7th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence: Advances in Artificial Intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to find a model to forecast 1-month ahead monthly anchovy catches using un-decimated multi-scale stationary wavelet transform (USWT) combined with linear autoregressive (AR) method. The original monthly anchovy catches are decomposed into various sub-series employing USWT and then appropriate sub-series are used as inputs to the multi-scale autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR's parameters are estimated using the regularized least squares (RLS) method. RLS based forecasting performance was evaluated using determination coefficient and shown that a 99% of the explained variance was captured with a reduced parsimony and high accuracy.