Risk analysis in software development

  • Authors:
  • Craig Comstock;Zhizhong Jiang;Peter Naudé

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK;Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK

  • Venue:
  • AIC'08 Proceedings of the 8th conference on Applied informatics and communications
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

Software is the key factor influencing the success of computer-based systems. However, software is expensive to develop, and there are great potential risks to deliver software without any overrun of the cost. In this study we investigated the amount of risk in terms of the range of possible productivity that can be expected in a portfolio of software development projects. Working on a large database with 4106 software projects, this study revealed that inefficient development teams can spend as many as 13 times of the effort taken by proficient teams for the development. This study further examined the effects of project size and team size on the variance in software development effort. The results showed that to reduce the risks of cost overruns, a small project is better than a large project when the team size is chosen in advance, and small team is preferable to a large team for a project of a fixed size.