Simulating growth of the h-index

  • Authors:
  • Raf Guns;Ronald Rousseau

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Antwerp, IBW, Venusstraat 35, City Campus, 2000 Antwerpen, Belgium;KHBO (Association K.U.Leuven), Industrial Sciences and Technology, Zeedijk 101, B-8400 Oostende, Belgium

  • Venue:
  • Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
  • Year:
  • 2009

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

Temporal growth of the h-index in a diachronous cumulative time series is predicted to be linear by Hirsch (2005), whereas other models predict a concave increase. Actual data generally yield a linear growth or S-shaped growth. We study the h-index's growth in computer simulations of the publication-citation process. In most simulations the h-index grows linearly in time. Only occasionally does an S-shape occur, while in our simulations a concave increase is very rare. The latter is often signalled by the occurrence of plateaus—periods of h-index stagnation. Several parameters and their influence on the h-index's growth are determined and discussed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.