The more plot: displaying measures of risk & error from simulation output

Authors:
Barry L. Nelson
Affiliations:
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL
Venue:
Proceedings of the 40th Conference on Winter Simulation
Year:
2008

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Abstract

The focus on mean (long-run average) performance as the primary output measure produced by simulation experiments diminishes the usefulness of simulation for characterizing risk. Confidence intervals on means are often misinterpreted as measures of future risk, when in fact they are measures of error. We introduce the Measure of Risk & Error (MORE) plot as a way to display and make intuitive the concepts of risk and error and thus support sound experiment design and correct decision making.