Who's your tiger? Using simulation to optimize the lineup of the Detroit Tigers offense

Authors:
Jared Davis;Barbara Fordyce;James Cicala;Matthew Cooper;Omer Tsimhoni
Affiliations:
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI;University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI;University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI;University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI;University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Venue:
Proceedings of the 40th Conference on Winter Simulation
Year:
2008

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Abstract

As part of an undergraduate engineering class project, a simulation of the Detroit Tigers offense was created to explore potential changes that would increase number of wins. More specifically, we seek to determine a lineup for an MLB team, the Detroit Tigers, that would maximize their potential runs. To answer our ultimate question of whether a manager actually maximizes runs scores, we compare our results to the Tigers' 2007 performance. We determine that though the Tigers did not use the ideal lineup as determined by our model, the lineup they did utilize was moderately robust, with ours winning 89.6 games versus the actual wins of 88 games. Additionally, we apply our model to a normative analysis of the Tigers ideal lineup for the 2008 season. This ideal lineup only changes the middle of the batting order (acceptable by management) and is predicted to win 99 games in the 2008 season.