Simulation and Gaming
Adversarial Risk Analysis: Applications to Basic Counterterrorism Models
ADT '09 Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Algorithmic Decision Theory
Confronting Entrenched Insurgents
Operations Research
Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?
Decision Analysis
The Nested Event Tree Model with Application to Combating Terrorism
INFORMS Journal on Computing
Optimal Allocation of Protective Resources in Shortest-Path Networks
Transportation Science
Optimal Allocation of Protective Resources in Shortest-Path Networks
Transportation Science
Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T-Period Game
Decision Analysis
Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing with the Team Effect
Decision Analysis
Monte Carlo simulation-based supply chain disruption management for wargames
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
A hierarchical procedure for multi-skilled sales force spatial planning
Computers and Operations Research
Protection issues for supply systems involving random attacks
Computers and Operations Research
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In this paper, we apply game theory to identify equilibrium strategies for both attacker and defender in a fully endogenous model of resource allocation for countering terrorism and natural disasters. The key features of our model include balancing protection from terrorism and natural disasters, and describing the attacker choice by a continuous level of effort rather than a discrete choice (i.e., attack or not). Interestingly, in a sequential game, increased defensive investment can lead an attacker to either increase his level of effort (to help compensate for the reduced probability of damage from an attack), or decrease his level of effort (because attacking has become less profitable). This can either reduce or increase the effectiveness of investments in protection from intentional attack, and can therefore affect the relative desirability of investing in protection from natural disasters.