Combining the Opinions of Experts Who Partition Events Differently

Authors:
Robert F. Bordley
Affiliations:
General Motors Research Laboratories and University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109
Venue:
Decision Analysis
Year:
2009

Citing 7
Cited 12

Combining overlapping information

Management Science
A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty

Management Science
Generalized Dirichlet distribution in Bayesian analysis

Applied Mathematics and Computation
Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

Management Science
Elicitation from Large, Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Using Multiple Uncertainty Measures to Characterize Information Quality for Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis
e-Participation and Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis
Uncertainty about probability: a reconciliation with the subjectivist viewpoint

IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans

From the Editor...

Decision Analysis
Honoring Michael H. Rothkopf's Legacy of Rigor and Relevance in Auction Theory: From the Editors

Decision Analysis
Combining marginal probability distributions via minimization of weighted sum of Kullback--Leibler divergences

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating

Decision Analysis
Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events

Decision Analysis
From the Editor---Multiattribute and Intertemporal Preferences, Probability, and Stochastic Processes: Models and Assessment

Decision Analysis
From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk

Decision Analysis
From the Editors---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics

Decision Analysis
From the Editors---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus

Decision Analysis
From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback

Decision Analysis
From the Editors: Group Decisions, Preference Elicitation, Experienced Utility, Survival Probabilities, and Portfolio Value of Information

Decision Analysis
Foundations for Group Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis

Quantified Score

Hi-index	0.00

Visualization

Abstract

This paper focuses on updating a client's beliefs about an event based on information about the different probabilities that various experts assess for that event. A substantial literature solves this problem when all experts assess their probabilities over the same partitioning of the possible outcomes of an event. But different experts often think about the same problem in quite different ways. This can lead to differences in how experts prefer to partition the possible outcomes of an event. Forcing the experts to use a common partition could lead to less informative probability assessments. Thus, this paper presents a new approach for combining probability assessments from different experts, which allows experts to assess their probability assessments across different partitionings.