Forecasting lava flow hazards during the 2006 Etna eruption: Using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model

  • Authors:

  • Alexis Herault;Annamaria Vicari;Alessia Ciraudo;Ciro Del Negro

  • Affiliations:

  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, 95100 Catania, Italy and Laboratoire de Science de Information, Université de Marne La Vallée, Paris XIII, France;Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, 95100 Catania, Italy;Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, 95100 Catania, Italy and Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Universití di Catania, Italy;Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, 95100 Catania, Italy

  • Venue:
  • Computers & Geosciences
  • Year:
  • 2009

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

The MAGFLOW cellular automata (CA) model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the time of the lava flow advance during the 2006 Etna eruption, leading to very plausible flow predictions. MAGFLOW is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the lava flow path over some time interval from the immediate future to a long-time forecast. Major discrepancies between the observed and simulated paths occurred in the early phase of the 2006 eruption due to an underestimation of the initial flow rate, and at the time of the overlapping with the 2004-2005 lava flow. Very good representations of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows were obtained when we adopt a time-varying effusion rate and include the 2004-2005 lava flow field in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography.