Forecasting output of integrated circuit industry by support vector regression models with marriage honey-bees optimization algorithms

  • Authors:

  • Ping-Feng Pai;Shun-Ling Yang;Ping-Teng Chang

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1, University Rd., Nantou 545, Taiwan and Department of International Business Studies, National Chi Nan University, 1, Universit ...;Department of Industrial Engineering and Enterprise Information, Tunghai University, 181 Taichung Harbor Road, Section 3 Taichung 40704, Taiwan;Department of Industrial Engineering and Enterprise Information, Tunghai University, 181 Taichung Harbor Road, Section 3 Taichung 40704, Taiwan

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Integrated circuit (IC) is a vital component of most electronic commodity. IC manufacturing in Taiwan is booming, with revenues from the ICs industry having grown significantly in the recent years. Given the nature of technology, capital intensity and high value-added, accurate forecasting of IC the industry output can improve the competitivity of IC cooperation. Support vector regression (SVR) is an emerging forecasting scheme that has been successfully adopted in many time-series forecasting areas. Additionally, the data preprocessing procedure and the determination of SVR parameters significantly impact the forecasting accuracy of SVR models. Thus, this work develops a support vector regression model with scaling preprocessing and marriage in honey-bee optimization (SVRSMBO) model to accurately forecast IC industry output. The scaling preprocessing procedure is utilized to lower the fluctuation of input data, and the marriage in honey-bees optimization (MBO) algorithm is adopted to determine the three parameters of the SVR model. Numerical data collected from the previous literature are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed SVRSMBO model. Simulation results indicate that the SVRSMBO model outperforms other forecasting models. Hence, the SVRSMBO model is a promising means of forecasting IC industry output.