A hybrid simulation-adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for improvement of electricity consumption estimation

Authors:
A. Azadeh;M. Saberi;A. Gitiforouz;Z. Saberi
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Engineering and Center of Excellence for Intelligent Based Experimental Mechanics, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran;Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tafresh, Iran;Department of Industrial Engineering and Center of Excellence for Intelligent Based Experimental Mechanics, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran;Department of Industrial Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Iran
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2009

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Abstract

This paper presents a hybrid adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), computer simulation and time series algorithm to estimate and predict electricity consumption estimation. The difficulty with electricity consumption estimation modeling approach such as time series is the reason for proposing the hybrid approach of this study. The algorithm is ideal for uncertain, ambiguous and complex estimation and forecasting. Computer simulation is developed to generate random variables for monthly electricity consumption. Various structures of ANFIS are examined and the preferred model is selected for estimation by the proposed algorithm. Finally, the preferred ANFIS and time series models are selected by Granger-Newbold test. Monthly electricity consumption in Iran from 1995 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The superiority of the proposed algorithm is shown by comparing its results with genetic algorithm (GA) and artificial neural network (ANN). This is the first study that uses a hybrid ANFIS computer simulation for improvement of electricity consumption estimation.