SOM-based data analysis of speculative attacks' real effects

  • Authors:
  • Ismael E. Arciniegas Rueda;Fabio A. Arciniegas

  • Affiliations:
  • (Correspd. Tel.: +1 410 295 1763/ E-mail: iarcin@hotmail.com) Constellation New Energy, Baltimore, Maryland, USA;Central American Bank of Economic Integration, Tegucigalpa, Honduras

  • Venue:
  • Intelligent Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

In some cases, currency crises are followed by strong recessions (e.g., recent Asian and Argentinean crises), but in other cases they are not. This paper uses Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to search for meaningful associations between speculative attacks' real effects and 28 variables that characterize the economic, financial, legal, and socio-political structure of the country at the onset of the attack. SOM is a neural network-based generalization of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that provides an efficient non-linear projection of the multidimensional data space on a curved surface. This paper finds a strong association of speculative attacks` real effects with fundamentals and the banking sector structure.