A system for analysis and prediction of electricity-load streams

  • Authors:
  • Pedro Pereira Rodrigues;João Gama

  • Affiliations:
  • LIAAD - INESC Porto L.A. Rua de Ceuta, 118 - 6 andar, 4050-190 Porto, Portugal and Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, 1021/1055, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal;(Correspd. E-mail: jgama@fep.up.pt) LIAAD - INESC Porto L.A. Rua de Ceuta, 118 - 6 andar, 4050-190 Porto, Portugal and Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200- ...

  • Venue:
  • Intelligent Data Analysis - Knowledge Discovery from Data Streams
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Sensors distributed all around electrical-power distribution networks produce streams of data at high-speed. From a data mining perspective, this sensor network problem is characterized by a large number of variables (sensors), producing a continuous flow of data, in a dynamic non-stationary environment. Companies make decisions to buy or sell energy based on load profiles and forecast. In this work we analyze the most relevant data mining problems and issues: continuously learning clusters and predictive models, model adaptation in large domains, and change detection and adaptation. The goal is to continuously maintain a clustering model, defining profiles, and a predictive model able to incorporate new information at the speed data arrives, detecting changes and adapting the decision models to the most recent information. We present experimental results in a large real-world scenario, illustrating the advantages of the continuous learning and its competitiveness against Wavelets based prediction. We also propose a light electrical load visualization system which enhances the ability to inspect forecast results in mobile devices.