A stochastic model for generating disturbance patterns within landscapes

Authors:
Z. L. Krougly;I. F. Creed;D. A. Stanford
Affiliations:
Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7;Department of Biology, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7;Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7
Venue:
Computers & Geosciences
Year:
2009

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Abstract

A stochastic model for generating disturbances in landscapes that interfaces with geographic information systems (GIS) is presented. The model operates on a lattice (rectangular array of points) using a space-time Markov process, which gives a stochastic simulation of growth patterns in terms of parameters of the local region. The model generates disturbance patterns on the landscape based on user-defined inputs of the total area disturbed and the number of patches to be disturbed. The model is developed in a C++ software package named ''TDsimulator'' (''Terrain Disturbance Simulator'') which can be used to predict changes in landscape cover under a variety of stochastic scenarios. The software comprises a set of GIS routines that collectively yield the disturbance patterns. A demonstration of the stochastic model is provided for simulating fire behaviour in a forested landscape. The numerical examples illustrate the total disturbance impact under different initial conditions and scenarios.