Adaptation in natural and artificial systems
Adaptation in natural and artificial systems
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With the objective to provide hydrodynamic information of the water around Singapore, the Singapore Regional Model (SRM) has been developed within the Delft3D numerical modelling system. The results of this large-domain numerical model are necessarily a balance between the choices about domain, local resolution, model parameter settings and representation of forcing. Especially in the complex nearshore area around Singapore Island, however, high accuracy in prediction of water levels is required. To further improve the results of the deterministic Singapore Regional Model in the coastal area, an error correction scheme based on the local model (LM) approach is carried out, which is inspired from chaos theory and capable of forecasting the time series based on the underlying mechanism that may not be revealed in the deterministic model simulation. The efficiency of the error correction scheme has been tested on 3 stations in the Singapore Regional Model domain with 4 prediction horizons ranging from 2 hours to 96 hours. It is found that the error correction scheme significantly improves the accuracy of the tidal prediction with more than 70% of the root mean square error removed for 2-hour tidal forecast and around 50% for 96-hour tidal forecast.