Bond rating using support vector machine
Intelligent Data Analysis
Pricing options in hong kong market based on neural networks
ICONIP'06 Proceedings of the 13th international conference on Neural information processing - Volume Part III
A hybrid unscented kalman filter and support vector machine model in option price forecasting
ICNC'06 Proceedings of the Second international conference on Advances in Natural Computation - Volume Part I
Regression methods for pricing complex American-style options
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
Evolutionary computation and the vega risk of American put options
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
Risk-neutral density extraction from option prices: improved pricing with mixture density networks
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
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Options are important financial derivatives that allow investors to control their investment risks in the securities market. Determining the theoretical price for an option, or option pricing, is regarded as one of the most important issues in financial research; a number of parametric and nonparametric option pricing approaches have been presented. While the objective of option pricing is to find the current fair price, for decision making, in contrast, the forecasting activity has to accurately predict the future option price without advance knowledge of the underlying asset price. In this paper, a simple and effective nonparametric method of forecasting option prices based on neural networks (NNs) and support vector regressions (SVRs) is presented. We first modified the improved conventional option pricing methods, allowing them to forecast the option prices. Second, we employed the NNs and SVRs to further decrease the forecasting errors of the parametric methods. Since the conventional methods mimic the trends of movement of the real option prices, using these methods in a first stage allows the NNs and SVRs to concentrate their power in nonlinear curve approximation to further reduce the forecasting errors in a second stage. Finally, extensive experimental studies with data from the Hong Kong option market demonstrated the ability of NNs and SVRs to improve forecast accuracy.