System Identification of Dengue Fever Epidemics in Cuba

  • Authors:
  • Esther García-Garaluz;Miguel Atencia;Francisco García-Lagos;Gonzalo Joya;Francisco Sandoval

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Tecnología Electrónica,;Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Universidad de Málaga (Spain), Málaga, Spain 29071;Departamento de Tecnología Electrónica,;Departamento de Tecnología Electrónica,;Departamento de Tecnología Electrónica,

  • Venue:
  • IWANN '09 Proceedings of the 10th International Work-Conference on Artificial Neural Networks: Part I: Bio-Inspired Systems: Computational and Ambient Intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

The objective of the work described in this paper is twofold. On the one hand, the aim is to present and validate a model of Dengue fever for the Cuban case which is defined by a delay differential system. Such a model includes time-varying parameters, which are estimated by means of a method based upon Hopfield Neural Networks. This method has been successfully applied in both robotic and epidemiological models described by Ordinary Differential Equations. Therefore, on the other hand, an additional aim of this work is to assess the behaviour of this neural estimation technique with a delay differential system. Experimental results show the ability of the estimator to deal with systems with delays, as well as plausible parameter estimations, which lead to predictions that are coherent with actual data.