Identifying and predicting economic regimes in supply chains using sales and procurement information

Authors:
Frederik Hogenboom;Wolfgang Ketter;Jan van Dalen;Uzay Kaymak;John Collins;Alok Gupta
Affiliations:
Erasmus University Rotterdam;Erasmus University Rotterdam;Erasmus University Rotterdam;Erasmus University Rotterdam;University of Minnesota;University of Minnesota
Venue:
Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Electronic Commerce
Year:
2009

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Abstract

We investigate the effects of adding procurement information (component offer prices) to a sales-based economic regime model, which is used for strategic, tactical, and operational decision making in dynamic supply chains. The performance of the regime model is evaluated through experiments with the MinneTAC trading agent, which competes in the TAC SCM game. We find that the new regime model has a similar overall predictive performance as the existing model. Regime switches are predicted more accurately, whereas the prediction accuracy of dominant regimes is slightly worse. However, by adding procurement information, we have enriched the model and we have further opportunities for applications in the procurement market, such as procurement reserve pricing.