Agent-based simulation of geo-political conflict

  • Authors:
  • Glenn Taylor;Richard Frederiksen;Russell R. Vane;Edward Waltz

  • Affiliations:
  • Soar Technology, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI;Soar Technology, Inc., Ann Arbor, MI;General Dynamics-Advanced Information Systems, Arlington, VA;General Dynamics-Advanced Information Systems, Arlington, VA

  • Venue:
  • IAAI'04 Proceedings of the 16th conference on Innovative applications of artifical intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2004

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Abstract

The intelligence analysis task of anticipating crises and providing decision makers with reasonable (supportable, explainable) possible futures is extremely difficult. To perform this task, a team of analysts must consider the political, economic, and military aspects of national governments and non-governmental organizations. This paper describes an agent-based simulation framework, the Advanced Global Intelligence and Leadership Experiment (AGILE), for building executable models for conducting regional analysis. AGILE is a full-featured simulation framework that enables the specification of simulation parameters, models and agents, lets the user define and run simulations under varying conditions, and enables post-run analysis of the results. In this paper, we describe the system implementation, and some examples of its use in a pseudo-operational setting.