Exchange rate forecasting using a combined parametric and nonparametric self-organising modelling approach

  • Authors:
  • Leonidas Anastasakis;Neil Mort

  • Affiliations:
  • Business School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK;Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Financial prediction has attracted a lot of interest due to the financial implications that the accurate prediction of financial markets can have. A variety of data driven modelling approaches have been applied but their performance has produced mixed results. In this study we apply both parametric (neural networks with active neurons) and nonparametric (analog complexing) self-organising modelling methods for the daily prediction of the exchange rate market. We also propose a combined approach where the parametric and nonparametric self-organising methods are combined sequentially, exploiting the advantages of the individual methods with the aim of improving their performance. The combined method is found to produce promising results and to outperform the individual methods when tested with two exchange rates: the American Dollar and the Deutche Mark against the British Pound.