Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks
Artificial Intelligence
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs
Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Review: Bayesian networks in environmental modelling
Environmental Modelling & Software
Assessing the likelihood of realizing idealized goals: The case of urban water strategies
Environmental Modelling & Software
Bayesian Networks for the management of greenhouse gas emissions in the British agricultural sector
Environmental Modelling & Software
Good practice in Bayesian network modelling
Environmental Modelling & Software
Short communication: Commentary: IUCN classifications under uncertainty
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
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The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List is widely recognised as an authoritative assessment of the conservation status of species. However, the data available for Red Listing are often lacking or uncertain. This paper presents a Bayesian network that may be used to perform a Red List assessment of a taxon using uncertain data. In such cases, input variables can be entered as likelihoods, and the appropriate Red List category is identified by the network using Bayesian inference. Relative performance of the Bayesian network was evaluated by comparison with an alternative method (RAMAS^(R) Red List), based on the use of fuzzy numbers. While results were generally comparable, some differences were noted for species with uncertain input data. Contrasting results may be attributed to differences in how uncertain data are analysed by the two approaches. The Bayesian network has the advantage of being more transparent, facilitating sensitivity analysis. The method consequently has potential for facilitating Red List assessments, particularly for poorly known taxa.