Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations

Authors:
M. J. Daniels;M. Pourahmadi
Affiliations:
Department of Statistics, University of Florida, United States;Department of Statistics, Texas A& M University, United States
Venue:
Journal of Multivariate Analysis
Year:
2009

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Abstract

We study the role of partial autocorrelations in the reparameterization and parsimonious modeling of a covariance matrix. The work is motivated by and tries to mimic the phenomenal success of the partial autocorrelations function (PACF) in model formulation, removing the positive-definiteness constraint on the autocorrelation function of a stationary time series and in reparameterizing the stationarity-invertibility domain of ARMA models. It turns out that once an order is fixed among the variables of a general random vector, then the above properties continue to hold and follow from establishing a one-to-one correspondence between a correlation matrix and its associated matrix of partial autocorrelations. Connections between the latter and the parameters of the modified Cholesky decomposition of a covariance matrix are discussed. Graphical tools similar to partial correlograms for model formulation and various priors based on the partial autocorrelations are proposed. We develop frequentist/Bayesian procedures for modelling correlation matrices, illustrate them using a real dataset, and explore their properties via simulations.