Evaluation of bankruptcy risks by the method of fuzzy statistics

  • Authors:

  • Teimuraz Manjafarashvili;Mikheil Kapanadze

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Computer Scienses, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia;Department of Computer Scienses, Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

  • Venue:
  • ECC'09 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on European computing conference
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

When controlling the financial assets in various spheres of the economy, the future is uncertain because the control is carried out in the conditions of uncertainty as regards a future state of the financial assets themselves and of their financial environment [1,2,8,10,12,16]. Therefore the problem of evaluating a bankruptcy risk extent is topical for all persons concerned about the state of the enterprise - owners, managers, investors, creditors, auditors and so on. Since any considered enterprise has a unique character, the statistical probability theory cannot be applied. It is necessary to put the accent not on predicting a bankruptcy but on recognizing the situation formed and evaluating a distance that separates the enterprise from the bankruptcy state. Naturally, a plausibility extent of this evaluation must also be indicated. Therefore a suitable mathematical tool for such studies is not statistics and the probability theory, but the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic [1,4,5,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16]. In this paper, mathematical model of bankruptcy risk prediction for an enterprise are considered, including the proposed variant of the application of the statistical theory of fuzzy classes.