The combined decision making technology based on the statistical and fuzzy analysis and its application in forecast's modeling

  • Authors:

  • Irina Khutsishvili

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Computer Sciences, Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, Iv.Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

  • Venue:
  • WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on SYSTEMS
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

In the present work the combined Decision Making Technology based on the Statistical and Fuzzy Analysis is offered. This is a novel technology, which is based on the use of fuzzy-statistical methods. The technology involves two stages of decision-making. While considering the same object, the first three methods make a decision independently. These methods are - the Statistical Method of Fuzzy Grades' Analysis, the Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis and the Case Based Reasoning. Each makes a decision with its own approach to a problem and uses statistical and expert data. These statistical data are the existing historical cases of correctly made decisions with exhibited activities. At the second stage, the fourth method - an Expertons method - is used to make a final decision. The method works with the expert data only and chooses the most believable decision from those offered by the first three methods. Proposed Decision Making Technology is applied to a specific forecasting problem - the decision-making on the possibility of earthquake occurrence. The present work describes the modifications of the "classical" variants of fuzzy-statistical methods, which became necessary to solve the specific forecasting problem and, also, introduces the Decision Support System, which was developed completely based on the proposed combined technology. The article provides an example clearly illustrating the work of the developed system.