Business Dynamics
Using Systems Dynamics to Explore Effects of Counterterrorism Policy
HICSS '07 Proceedings of the 40th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
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This paper describes the need for a dynamic modeling methodology that can account for the myriad of complex interactions between economic, political, military, infrastructure, human, social, ethnic, governmental and other factors involved in understanding an insurgency. The literature review provides a description of several previous dynamic models of insurgency. An exploratory dynamic model using the System Dynamics modeling methodology is then introduced showing how a single province in Iraq can be modeled. The paper includes discussion on the direction of future research, and describes how the model will be further developed and refined, how a graphical user interface (GUI) will be developed and implemented, and how ultimately the model can be integrated into the U.S. Army's Iraqi Campaign Model.