Predicting forensic admission among the mentally ill in a multinational setting: A Bayesian modelling approach

  • Authors:
  • Erkki J. O. Soini;Tarja Rissanen;Jari Tiihonen;Sheilagh Hodgins;Markku Eronen;Olli-Pekka Ryynänen

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland and Department of Social Pharmacy (Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Economics), University of Kuopio, Kuopio, ...;Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland and Niuvanniemi Hospital, Kuopio, Finland;Niuvanniemi Hospital, Kuopio, Finland and Department of Forensic Psychiatry, University of Kuopio, Finland;Department of Forensic Mental Health Science, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK;Vanha Vaasa Hospital, Vaasa, Finland;General Practice Unit, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland and Department of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland

  • Venue:
  • Data & Knowledge Engineering
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Our objective was to explore protective and risk factors for a forensic admission among the mentally ill. The most influential risk factors included violent crime prior to the crime that leads to the index hospitalization, conviction of the biological father, and no use of psychotropic medications before the age of 18. The main contributions of this study in comparison to previous studies in this domain included the use of multinational setting, greedy Bayesian algorithm, generalized country-independent factors, a merger model with high predictive performance, various measures of predictive performance including relative predictive value, and independent learning and test sets.