Time series clustering based on forecast densities

  • Authors:
  • A. M. Alonso;J. R. Berrendero;A. Hernández;A. Justel

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Estadística, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain;Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK;Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain

  • Venue:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

A new clustering method for time series is proposed, based on the full probability density of the forecasts. First, a resampling method combined with a nonparametric kernel estimator provides estimates of the forecast densities. A measure of discrepancy is then defined between these estimates and the resulting dissimilarity matrix is used to carry out the required cluster analysis. Applications of this method to both simulated and real life data sets are discussed.